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That is the view of some leading figures in the feed industry. But others in the sector—including Defra officials—appear unconvinced that the situation is so critical. If no feed is available producers will, as things stand, lose their organic status with disastrous results for individuals and for the supply of organic eggs.

As revealed in last month's Ranger one leading feed manufacturer—Deans Foods—has already written to its customers warning that supplies of organic wheat, a major component of layer diets, could run out by the end of the first quarter.

Now a second company—free range specialists Humphrey Feeds—has given the same grim news to the producers it supplies. Martin Humphrey, a director of the Winchester-based company, has told his clients: "We believe that we can supply organic feed until the end of March, but at significantly higher prices than in the last quarter. The 'nominal' price, if it can be bought, of organic wheat has risen £60 in just over three months.

"Our suppliers are suggesting that they currently have enough 'cereals' to sustain their customers—as long as they are prepared to switch from some wheat to barley and maize—until the end of March, but hopefully more cereals may yet become available.

"This information is different from that which is held by some of the organic bodies, who have been led to believe that there is enough wheat in Europe to meet European demand. We are aware that the whole of Western Europe is running out of organic cereals."

Behind the crisis is the fact that Britain has failed to produce anything like enough organic cereals to meet the demands of its rapidly expanding organic sector. As much as 60 per cent of organic supplies are imported. In recent years this has come from Sweden, Italy, Australia and the Ukraine. With poor harvests across Europe suppliers have become dependent on Ukrainian stocks but a new Government there is prioritising supplies to Russia rather than Western Europe.

A critical EU meeting in Brussels has been called for this month to discuss feed shortages across the entire organic industry. But its limited agenda does not even include what measures could be taken to avert the poultry crisis.

One obvious solution is to change the EU derogation on what level of organic ingredients need to be included in an organic diet. For layers the level currently stands at 85 per cent. But several EU countries are deeply opposed to such a move on the grounds that it will further undermine the consumers' view of organic credibility. Some in the feed industry believe that slashing the organic content to 45 per cent will be necessary to avoid the collapse of organic status of many producers.

The crisis is already serious for producers who are facing ever increasing feed bills.
With wheat making up around 60 per cent of most poultry diets, each £10 rise in the price of wheat means a £6 rise in the price of the feed, costing producers 1.2 pence for every dozen organic eggs produced. Some feed suppliers have already switched from quarterly to monthly pricing.

In his letter to customers Mr Humphrey says: "We have established that generally
compounders in the England and Wales will run out of cereals at much the same time.
That those in Northern Ireland may run out sooner and that flour millers, grinding organic wheat for bread, will run out even sooner.

"The Ukraine is still not loading cereals, including organic wheat, destined for Europe. Sporadic supplies of other organic cereals such as maize and barley are occasionally becoming available from such places as Argentina and Romania, but those volumes are currently insufficient to see the UK through until next harvest."

He is advising his customers to contact both their certification bodies and Defra to stress how serious the crisis has become.

Defra told the Ranger that talks were already being held with the feed industry and that the Department was writing to organic bodies to obtain their views. But one senior official at Defra still questioned whether the industry was not simply in the grip of a "panic".

Phil Stocker, head of the food & farming department at the Soil Association told the Ranger: "We are obviously aware of the problems caused for some businesses by the current shortages and are sympathetic to these.

"But we are really opposed to diluting standards and giving derogations which risk undermining the integrity of organic produce. We are also very aware of the effect giving derogations has on developing new markets. For example, past derogations for non-organic feed stuff have really hampered the expansion of organic arable crops in the UK."

Mr Stocker said the SA is currently working on a policy statement on the issue.

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