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Producers have been warned that reserves of organic wheat could begin to run out in January or February. Already feed formulations are being regularly altered to cope with shortages.

But the certification body Organic Farmers & Growers (OF&G), which inspects and licenses the majority of UK organic eggs and poultry, fears that the crisis could become so severe that producers may face seeing flocks lose their organic status.

In a letter to organic feed customers Deans Foods has warned that the feed industry is predicting a shortage of cereals, pulses and alternative protein sources. It says that although many contracts are in place unless supplies become available from elsewhere "organic wheat could be running out as soon as January or February 2007".

The problem is that the growth in the organic sector in Britain has simply outstripped the supply of organic crops needed to feed the animals. And in the short term supplies from the Ukraine have been interrupted by a change of Government bringing with it a change of attitude to exports.

Only this year the organic content of feed for laying flocks—under EU regulations—rose to 85 per cent. Under the terms of a Brussels derogation the mandatory organic content will rise to 100 per cent by 2012. This places an extra pressure on feed supplies. New regulations, which came into force this year and mean that all pullets heading for organic units must be fed an organic diet have also increased demand.

One solution to the short term crisis would be to reduce the current 85 per cent organic content level. But there appears to be no official support for such a move.

OF&G chief executive, Richard Jacobs, said: "We are deeply concerned about this growing problem and have been holding meetings with relevant parties, including Defra and the Home-Grown Cereals Authority, to look at the way forward.

"What is clear is that there is no widespread support for extending the feed derogation. We understand that the EU and Defra do not support such a move. It would be counter to the progress that organic has made and to what the consumer expects when they pay for organic food.

"This has been a growing concern for some time and we've been trying hard to communicate this and ensure everyone with an interest was wide awake to the problem."

OF&G fears that if no adequate supplies of organic crops (particularly wheat) can be found elsewhere in Europe, organic producers could see their flocks decertified if they cannot be fed according to the regulations.

Mr Jacobs added: "This would be a terrible situation for producers themselves and could see UK product bolstered by imports in the shops—a situation we really don't want to see. In a sense organic is a victim of its own success on the livestock side, but a failure in terms of keeping pace with arable demand.

"It's not clear that there's a short term solution, but in the medium to long term we need to work together to convince our arable counterparts that there is a demand and even a premium market out there if they go organic."

But egg producers face significant problems in the short term. Organic feed prices are already around £260 per tonne and seem certain to go higher as the crisis deepens.

If changes in diet specification become unavoidable then there is a possibility it will impact on bird performance. And there is also an increased pecking risk—a change of diet is a well recognised trigger for pecking and with most organic flocks being fully beaked the implications are serious.

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