A couple of months ago, we were worried about both soya and wheat. Last month we said soya was looking dangerous, this month that prediction came true. At the time of writing soyabeans closed at above $12/bushel (36.7 bushels = 1 tonne) for the first time since October – that was when the markets were falling in the credit crunch sell-off after the peak of $16/Bushels last July. In early March soya bean meal was $256/tonne, and is now $390; the peak was $456 last July.

Feed compounders have been in a difficult position so far this year. May Non-GM hipro has averaged over £300/tonne – a historically high price when prices should be lower due to the South American harvest; so few compounders have had the confidence to buy forward. Then came the prediction that Argentina's soya crop is closer to 30mt than the 45-50mt initially expected. In May prices shot up mainly due to the shortage of US soya and due to a weakening $. As the $ weakens, more money is invested into commodities. In summary, there is less soya supply than expected, US stocks will be at near historic lows in the autumn, the funds are taking larger than us...

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